Sunday, June 29, 2014

Fed, GS forecasting models: nonexistent or very inadequate

Ron,

I am not arguing to use any models of the Fed or Goldman Sachs for
forecasting bubbles and crashes such as occurred in 2007, 2008. I am
not aware of any Goldman Sachs model that would be relevant. I doubt if
they have such a model.

I am pretty sure the Fed did not have any relevant models before the
crash of 2008, and probably no good model yet after the crash of 2008.
You can read conference papers at
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/events/2002/march/macroeconomic-models-monetary-policy-2002/
Some are quite readable and interesting but the models are antiques: CGE
VAR and ECT. Their "recent" technology is circa 1980. The Feds main
model they admit is 1960s and 1970s. Long before derivatives became
popular. The culprit derivatives were not even invented when the
forecasting technologies were developed.

Further you can read the models have improved somewhat since the crash
and may help prevent future crashes. But there is no description of
model capabilities that would predict the crash
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20140625a.htm

I do not expect that either the Fed or GS or any party will produce any
good crash prediction models in my lifetime. Such a model would have to
distinguish between what is a trend (such as faster computers) and what
is a bubble (too many computers per capita). If something is good and
healthy then it may stay around for a long time. But something else may
produce disease in the longer run, people may die, and sales collapse.
Only a good scientific model would be able to determine if there are too
many derivatives or too little, and which ones will grow and which will
collapse.

This lack of good models is caused by lack of good science and education
in our universities. Only a handful of universities teach the needed
classes. Then Phd students will rarely take enough of these needed
classes to be able to do the correct modelling. I am not aware of any
student or professor who has the relevant knowledge or interests to be
worth talking to. Maybe the Fed in Washington DC has collected a few
staff, but I have not seen any serious new models come out from them yet.

Greenspan, Bernanke, or Yellen do not have any background in Derivatives
that would allow them to forecast the crash of 2008. I doubt if very
many of their staff had the background. Maybe none. I have never seen
any significant work on derivatives from the fed so never look at their
stuff. They are mostly monetary economists who are not required to take
Finance for their Phd. They probably have hired some since the crash as
evidenced by their discussion on stress testing. After the fact.

But probably not nearly what is needed. I am going through several
hundred pounds of journals on my living room floor, tossing most into
the trash can. If I see anything good I will email you a link.

For the record, everybody I know knew a crash was probably coming, a
repeat of recent bubbles. Bloomberg reporter was calling Greenspan DBCB
double bubble central banker 2 years before the crash, quoting Anna
Schwartz criticism of 2003-2004 loose money which was about time I began
getting disturbed, coming so soon after the dot-com crash:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aouwvLwhMQRU

I would have to read Bernanke's statements to see if he was aware of a
bubble, say, in Feb 2008. I don't care much what he ever said so may
not do that. But it is worrisome that people who should have a gut feel
for data cannot see when numbers are way out of equilibrium. Bernanke
seems to have less senile dementia than Greenspan. This points to
models that can do the required calculations and emit beeps. Like a
horse that can find its way home even if the rider is drunk of shot.

Joe


On 6/28/14, Ron wrote:
> Your response appears very erudite but if the mathematical models used
> by the Fed and Goldman Sachs were to be employed I would be inclined
> to wager just the opposite of their claimed predictions. If I recall
> it was Alan Greenspan and later Bernanke that stated in 2007 the
> economy was "doing just fine".

Re: Perkins economic hit-man, ISIS war, oil prices no difference, Iraq, Re: $3.39 gasoline, food inflation

Ron,

More rain.

I searched but did not find any Perkins claim of forecasting ability for
oil or anything. He does not claim any scientific publications. Some
blogs said that he said oil prices may go up, but I do not find him
saying that. He may have said something extreme off-the cuff to make a
point, like everybody. Or he maybe studied shamanism well, how to be so
vague in your statements that nobody can catch you in an error. "On the
other hand", etc. He is making money and has plenty to talk about
without putting his reputation at risk making an actual forecast that
could turn out to be wrong.

He is a stereotypical 60s liberal, as he reveals on his Facebook page
and blog and book. I have known hundreds or thousands of people like him
and know how they think (I agree with them on a few points). There are
millions of baby boomers who think similarly so a big market for his
books and speeches. That is a clue for me to avoid such books -- I know
the general thrust and where I disagree and agree so I won't learn
anything new.

Always check Amazon.com customer book reviews, especially the negative
reviews. Also wikipedia often has some critical discussion on important
books. Signed reviews such as "this may be the worst book that I have
ever read, not because it is not enjoyable to read, I actually flew
through it, but because of how badly the author attempts to deceive the
reader."

He may be telling the truth about his jobs. I would not take those jobs,
nor would a moral person if what he is writes is true, in what he calls
"confessions". He should have quit immediately. If nobody works at and
supports crooked institutions then they cannot function.

Further, my opinion is that nowadays too much taxpayer and investor
money is wasted on big government, quasi-government, the World Bank, the
World Bank Group, the IMF, NSA, etc. Shut them down and throw their
briefcases into the Potomac river. Or give them to Russia, China, Iran,
Israel or any country that will pay for them. I doubt if there are any
interesting or useful jobs in most of those organizations. I have known
quite a few Phd economists who could not get better jobs so they took
jobs at the IMF etc. I don't know why anybody would want to work there
except if they can't get anything else. Maybe websites or data
collection might require some real technical expertise. They do have
lots of cocktail parties and rich kids from all over the world to chat
with if that is what you want in a job. Shut them down.

At least his book casts a bad light on some of these quasi-government
big government sponsored institutions. Makes private enterprise Goldman
Sachs look good. I would buy with one or more books with the opposite
point of view to provide balance.

https://www.facebook.com/johnperkinsauthor/posts/10151282198527975

I admit to the possibility of a better system, but I also do not believe
capitalism is going to fall any time soon, nor do I think it should.
Capitalism has proven to be a tremendous tool for channeling creative
minds to productive uses. But capitalism – in the mutant form we have
embraced - has become dangerous.

On 6/28/14, 11:10 PM, Ron wrote:
> Joe,
>
> Your response appears very erudite but if the mathematical models used
> by the Fed and Goldman Sachs were to be employed I would be inclined
> to wager just the opposite of their claimed predictions. If I recall
> it was Alan Greenspan and later Bernanke that stated in 2007 the
> economy was "doing just fine". Much later their corporate
> "presstitute" shills stated: "nobody could have foreseen." Many did
> foresee but they lacked the pedigree of not being part of the Ponzi
> scheme. They were ignored by the corporate press. Gerald Celente's
> correct predictions were called "Pessimism Porn" by the NYT. Dr Marc
> Faber was referred to as a "doom and gloomer."
> "A hippy running around saying the sky is falling"? Perkins was
> definitely an IMF insider. I found his book forthright and very
> believable. I have generally found as an investigator that scratching
> below the surface is productive. I try not to limit myself to canned
> and homogenized sources such as the "Wikipedia", "The World Book
> Encyclopedia",or "Snopes"or sources such as "The New York Times" or
> the "Fed" website that have demonstrated repeatedly a lack of
> objectivity and credibility. Ad hominem attacks against someone are
> premature without first offering a point by point rebuttal of their
> argument(s). If they lack the requisite academic pedigrees their
> argument SHOULD in theory be correspondingly easy to refute. First
> argue the facts and if that doesn't work THEN call the other guy names.
> After the 2008 financial fiasco it was determined that Goldmans-Sachs
> had engaged in proprietary trading against their own clients while
> advising them to invest in securitized mortgages they themselves had
> packaged. GS has the most advanced logarithm programs in the world.
> The overriding problem is they are demonstrated liars.
> Your response completely neglects motives especially greed and the age
> old observation that persons lie for various reasons (usually greed.)
> I have observed that persons like Jim Willie Phd. and Gerald Celente's
> "Trends Forecasting" agency have much more predictive validity than
> any of the "experts" at the "Fed" or the Treasury. Large segments of
> the corporate world and countries especially outside the Western
> Central bank Ponzi scheme regularly seek out their advice. If neither
> of these individuals have the requisite pedigree ( being an accepted
> member in the "belly of the beast") perhaps former Asst. Secretary of
> the Treasury Paul Craig Roberts does (works for and with Celente). He
> states much the same regarding oil prices,gold silver, fiat currencies
> etc. Roberts strikes me as a deeply moral man who admits to placing
> himself at personal and even physical risk for speaking out against
> the beast that the western central bank debt based Ponzi scheme as
> become. At this point I am not interested in the internal machinations
> of a particular mathematical model used for predictions (although I do
> hold an advanced degree in statistics) only the quality of the product
> and the honesty of the source.
>
> Ron
>
>
> On June 28, 2014, Joe wrote:
>
>
> Ron,
>
> Perkins does not have the background to forecast oil prices according to
> article below. Resume looks like a Peace Corps draft dodger college
> dropout during the Vietnam War. He does not like the system so tries to
> muck it up. Forecasting is difficult. Accomplished by mathematical
> models and data. Difficult work. I would look to see what data and
> models he is using. Hippies running around saying the sky is falling
> should be ignored. Especially with outrageous forecasts. Just look at
> his models and data. Are they better than the alternatives?
>
> Anybody can see there is something going on in the middle east (esp.
> Iraq Syria) and that usually impacts oil prices, often greatly. I am
> seeing about 10 cents per week increases in gasoline prices (summer peak
> travel?). I am sure some (BP) would like to see oil and fuel prices to
> increase much more. There is a risk that this can happen. But the ISIS
> "invasion?" may fizzle or even make oil prices go down. I have yet to
> see a good analysis of what is going on with ISIS and likely outcomes.
> Once that is figured out one can analyze each scenario on how that would
> impact oil prices. If the war spreads we may have more to worry about
> than oil prices -- like another mideast or Iraq war. Obama Kerry may
> not be up to the task of making good decisions.
>
> Wild guess: Iraq is too Shiite dominated (Bush plan) and Iran
> influenced. Kurds, Israel, Sunnis would probably want ISIS to take over
> the north Iraq and push the Shiites into the south, maybe partition
> Baghdad or take it over. At least force the current Iraq Government to
> share more power. Reduce Iran + Iraq danger to Israel and the Kurdish
> oil fields. (Kurds are smart.) More oil might flow thus lowering oil
> prices.
>
> I never liked the idea of invading Iraq (Bush 2). Saddam Hussein had no
> WMD and was a useful buffer state to protect Israel from Iran. (Iraq
> fought Iran to a draw 1978-). I don't think ISIS will be able to be as
> strong as Saddam Hussein no matter who is funding them.
>
> There probably will be quite a lot of fighting for decades somewhere in
> the Middle East. Deflation has made guns and potent military hardware
> cheap and widespread around the world. More and better and cheaper
> constantly being produced. They will use those weapons, sooner or later.
>
> Nevertheless, the Middle East does not matter much to USA if we can stay
> out of the wars. Middle east wars have been going on for thousands of
> years with little impact on the USA until 1973.
>
> High gas and oil prices would be great to force Americans to exercise
> more and quit over-heating and over air-conditioning their houses thus
> reducing disease.
>
> Low gas and oil prices are also ok so people can pay down debt, eat
> healthier food, and buy more gym memberships,... It is a win-win war
> for USA -- we are not fighting (hopefully). Kerry has done nothing to
> protect the Mexican border so he may as well ship out to Iraq or Ukraine
> to get him out of USA. Permanently better. Take Obama and Clinton with
> him.
>
> Some companies will lose in either case. For example:
>
> expensive oil: People walk to work so they won't need the
> medical-industrial complex so much. This leaves them with money for
> other products, like cars, houses, broccoli,...
>
> cheap oil: People drive more so get sicker. They will need medical
> care so other industries will suffer. People won't be buying so many new
> cars, houses, broccoli ...
>
> Price fluctuations cannot keep the economy from getting larger and
> larger over time. Price fluctuations can only cause people to buy some
> products instead of other products.
>
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Perkins_(author)
>
> Perkins graduated from the Tilton School in 1963. He subsequently
> attended Middlebury College for two years before dropping out due to
> lackluster grades. He later earned a Bachelor of Science degree in
> business administration from Boston University in 1968. He was a Peace
> Corps Volunteer in Ecuador from 1968 to 1970. an expert on indigenous
> cultures and shamanism, a teacher and writer who used this expertise to
> promote ecology and sustainability. He spent the 1970s working for the
> Boston strategic-consulting firm Chas. T. Main; he claims to have been
> screened for this job by the National Security Agency (NSA) and
> subsequently hired by Einar Greve, a member of the firm (alleged by
> Perkins to have been acting as an NSA liaison, a claim which Greve has
> denied). Perkins's time at Chas T. Main, an engineering consultancy,
> provides the basis for his subsequent published claims that, as an
> "economic hit man", he was charged with inducing developing countries to
> borrow large amounts of money, designated to pay for questionable
> infrastructure investments, but ultimately with a view to making the
> debt-laden countries more dependent, economically and politically, upon
> the West.
>
>
> On 6/26/14, Ron wrote:
> > Regarding oil prices John Perkins ("Confessions of an Economic
> > Hitman") in a recent USAWatchdog.com interview gives a 60% probability
> > of oil going to between $160 and $250 per barrel with deepening
> > mideast fighting.
>
>
>

Federal Reserve bank data Saint Louis. Re: Perkins economic hit-man, ISIS war, oil prices no difference, Iraq, Re: $3.39 gasoline, food inflation

Ron,

I challenge you to find a single wrong number on the St. Louis Fed
website. Might be a ticket to a data job. One reason I graph complete
time series is to spot errors. Years ago errors could be found. Now very
rare. Quality in the computerized world is getting better in many respects.

For the USA important series the data are probably over 99.999%
accurate. Maybe 100% accurate. The USA numbers are generated by computer
programs many decades old. Any bugs were probably fixed many years ago,
but there can be new bugs introduced by new machines and software.

The data are probably over 99% perfect even for the poor small countries
for which it covers. What errors might be there might be trivial enough
to be ignored.

It is a large database from many sources as the numbers below indicate.
Errors might creep in when so much tedious work is involved.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2014/q2/stierholz.pdf

FRED by the numbers June 4, 2014
223,000 economic time series
88,531 international series
37,170,431 data points
67 sources
213 countries' data contained in FRED
227 countries' residents using FRED
715 published data lists
3 months of FRED blog posts
2,600+ FRED graphs embedded in other websites
500+ user dashboards created
6 additional doors to FRED data:
GeoFRED, ALFRED, Excel Add-in, API, FRED app,
mobile FRED

On 6/28/14 Ron wrote:
> I try not to limit myself to canned and homogenized sources such as
> the "Wikipedia", "The World Book Encyclopedia", or "Snopes" or sources
> such as "The New York Times" or the "Fed" website that have
> demonstrated repeatedly a lack of objectivity and credibility.
>
>
> Ron,
>
> Perkins does not have the background to forecast oil prices according to
> article below. Resume looks like a Peace Corps draft dodger college
> dropout during the Vietnam War. He does not like the system so tries to
> muck it up. Forecasting is difficult. Accomplished by mathematical
> models and data. Difficult work. I would look to see what data and
> models he is using. Hippies running around saying the sky is falling
> should be ignored. Especially with outrageous forecasts. Just look at
> his models and data. Are they better than the alternatives?
>
> Anybody can see there is something going on in the middle east (esp.
> Iraq Syria) and that usually impacts oil prices, often greatly. I am
> seeing about 10 cents per week increases in gasoline prices (summer peak
> travel?). I am sure some (BP) would like to see oil and fuel prices to
> increase much more. There is a risk that this can happen. But the ISIS
> "invasion?" may fizzle or even make oil prices go down. I have yet to
> see a good analysis of what is going on with ISIS and likely outcomes.
> Once that is figured out one can analyze each scenario on how that would
> impact oil prices. If the war spreads we may have more to worry about
> than oil prices -- like another mideast or Iraq war. Obama Kerry may
> not be up to the task of making good decisions.
>
> Wild guess: Iraq is too Shiite dominated (Bush plan) and Iran
> influenced. Kurds, Israel, Sunnis would probably want ISIS to take over
> the north Iraq and push the Shiites into the south, maybe partition
> Baghdad or take it over. At least force the current Iraq Government to
> share more power. Reduce Iran + Iraq danger to Israel and the Kurdish
> oil fields. (Kurds are smart.) More oil might flow thus lowering oil
> prices.
>
> I never liked the idea of invading Iraq (Bush 2). Saddam Hussein had no
> WMD and was a useful buffer state to protect Israel from Iran. (Iraq
> fought Iran to a draw 1978-). I don't think ISIS will be able to be as
> strong as Saddam Hussein no matter who is funding them.
>
> There probably will be quite a lot of fighting for decades somewhere in
> the Middle East. Deflation has made guns and potent military hardware
> cheap and widespread around the world. More and better and cheaper
> constantly being produced. They will use those weapons, sooner or later.
>
> Nevertheless, the Middle East does not matter much to USA if we can stay
> out of the wars. Middle east wars have been going on for thousands of
> years with little impact on the USA until 1973.
>
> High gas and oil prices would be great to force Americans to exercise
> more and quit over-heating and over air-conditioning their houses thus
> reducing disease.
>
> Low gas and oil prices are also ok so people can pay down debt, eat
> healthier food, and buy more gym memberships,... It is a win-win war
> for USA -- we are not fighting (hopefully). Kerry has done nothing to
> protect the Mexican border so he may as well ship out to Iraq or Ukraine
> to get him out of USA. Permanently better. Take Obama and Clinton with
> him.
>
> Some companies will lose in either case. For example:
>
> expensive oil: People walk to work so they won't need the
> medical-industrial complex so much. This leaves them with money for
> other products, like cars, houses, broccoli,...
>
> cheap oil: People drive more so get sicker. They will need medical
> care so other industries will suffer. People won't be buying so many new
> cars, houses, broccoli ...
>
> Price fluctuations cannot keep the economy from getting larger and
> larger over time. Price fluctuations can only cause people to buy some
> products instead of other products.
>
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Perkins_(author)
>
> Perkins graduated from the Tilton School in 1963. He subsequently
> attended Middlebury College for two years before dropping out due to
> lackluster grades. He later earned a Bachelor of Science degree in
> business administration from Boston University in 1968. He was a Peace
> Corps Volunteer in Ecuador from 1968 to 1970. an expert on indigenous
> cultures and shamanism, a teacher and writer who used this expertise to
> promote ecology and sustainability. He spent the 1970s working for the
> Boston strategic-consulting firm Chas. T. Main; he claims to have been
> screened for this job by the National Security Agency (NSA) and
> subsequently hired by Einar Greve, a member of the firm (alleged by
> Perkins to have been acting as an NSA liaison, a claim which Greve has
> denied). Perkins's time at Chas T. Main, an engineering consultancy,
> provides the basis for his subsequent published claims that, as an
> "economic hit man", he was charged with inducing developing countries to
> borrow large amounts of money, designated to pay for questionable
> infrastructure investments, but ultimately with a view to making the
> debt-laden countries more dependent, economically and politically, upon
> the West.
>
>
> On 6/26/14, Ron wrote:
> > Regarding oil prices John Perkins ("Confessions of an Economic
> > Hitman") in a recent USAWatchdog.com interview gives a 60% probability
> > of oil going to between $160 and $250 per barrel with deepening
> > mideast fighting.
>
>
>

Saturday, June 28, 2014

No $ reserve currency. Outlaw eurodollars. $ for USA

Ron,

Rain today but I did walk 7 miles along the lake and 1 mile in the lake
at the beach before it started raining. Lucky. Lots of rain leads to
lots of wildflowers photo below

Better if USA gets rid of Dollar reserve status that pushes the value of
the dollar higher which makes it hard for our exporters to succeed in a
global economy. Makes our exports too expensive, imports too cheap,
thus leading to trade deficits. USA needs high paying export jobs and
to quit importing so much junk from overseas. Further, these monetary
inflows go into banks which loan them out causing Americans to get
deeper in debt. USA needs to reduce debt. Keep those funds out of $ to
reduce debt and deficits. Dollars floating around the world has been a
big problem since the 1970s (Eurodollars Petrodollar recycling) etc.

I would go much further and outlaw any dollars in any foreign country.
US$ are the USA currency and should stay in USA regulated financial
institutions. Foreign countries have their own currencies. Foreigners
should use their own currencies. If foreigners sell something in the
USA and get dollars then they should convert those dollars to foreign
currency before moving those funds out of the USA. Foreign currency is
the world's largest market, highly liquid. Banks are happy to help you
convert your currency for a small fee.

The current currency chaos benefits crooks, schemers, and foreigners but
cheats the USA poor 99% who worked hard to earn those dollars. Those
dollars should not be allowed to float overseas into nebulous dubious
foreign entities where they may stay forever. USA dollars should stay
in the USA where they can be regulated, monitored, and secured. USA
dollars should inflate Americans not Foreigners who do not pay our taxes
or fight our wars. Parasites. If we can bring back all that money
floating overseas, we would be rich, not in debt. And not so many poor
deflated people in the USA.

Gold lost all of its purchasing power before I was born. I have never
seen anybody buy anything with gold. I have bought a few things with
silver dimes and quarters but nowadays it is hard to find any real
silver coins anymore except in curio coin shops. Nobody uses gold or
silver anymore for transactions except occasionally criminals doing drug
deals, human trafficking, tax evasion,... Gold purchasing power is gone
forever.

Useful articles:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar

Eurodollars are time deposits denominated in U.S. dollars at banks
outside the United States, and thus are not under the jurisdiction of
the Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much
less regulation than similar deposits within the U.S., allowing for
higher margins. By December 1985 the Eurocurrency market was estimated
to have a net size of 1,668B. However, since the markets are not
responsible to any government agency its growth is hard to estimate. The
Eurodollar market is by a wide margin the largest source of global
finance. In 1997, nearly 90% of all international loans were made this way

On 6/26/14, Ron wrote:
> Prognosis for the dollar holding value is not good. The dollar
> (actually "Federal" Reserve Note) has lost 98% of value against gold
> and 97% against silver since the inception of "The Fed" in 1913. (King
> World News). Because of the reserve status the dollar may be the last
> man standing among world fiat currencies or the first casualty if the
> US central bankers keep aggressively pushing exclusive use of the
> petrodollar on noncompliant countries with the US military. Eventually
> all bullies are dealt with.

Perkins economic hit-man, ISIS war, oil prices no difference, Iraq, Re: $3.39 gasoline, food inflation

Ron,

Perkins does not have the background to forecast oil prices according to
article below. Resume looks like a Peace Corps draft dodger college
dropout during the Vietnam War. He does not like the system so tries to
muck it up. Forecasting is difficult. Accomplished by mathematical
models and data. Difficult work. I would look to see what data and
models he is using. Hippies running around saying the sky is falling
should be ignored. Especially with outrageous forecasts. Just look at
his models and data. Are they better than the alternatives?

Anybody can see there is something going on in the middle east (esp.
Iraq Syria) and that usually impacts oil prices, often greatly. I am
seeing about 10 cents per week increases in gasoline prices (summer peak
travel?). I am sure some (BP) would like to see oil and fuel prices to
increase much more. There is a risk that this can happen. But the ISIS
"invasion?" may fizzle or even make oil prices go down. I have yet to
see a good analysis of what is going on with ISIS and likely outcomes.
Once that is figured out one can analyze each scenario on how that would
impact oil prices. If the war spreads we may have more to worry about
than oil prices -- like another mideast or Iraq war. Obama Kerry may
not be up to the task of making good decisions.

Wild guess: Iraq is too Shiite dominated (Bush plan) and Iran
influenced. Kurds, Israel, Sunnis would probably want ISIS to take over
the north Iraq and push the Shiites into the south, maybe partition
Baghdad or take it over. At least force the current Iraq Government to
share more power. Reduce Iran + Iraq danger to Israel and the Kurdish
oil fields. (Kurds are smart.) More oil might flow thus lowering oil
prices.

I never liked the idea of invading Iraq (Bush 2). Saddam Hussein had no
WMD and was a useful buffer state to protect Israel from Iran. (Iraq
fought Iran to a draw 1978-). I don't think ISIS will be able to be as
strong as Saddam Hussein no matter who is funding them.

There probably will be quite a lot of fighting for decades somewhere in
the Middle East. Deflation has made guns and potent military hardware
cheap and widespread around the world. More and better and cheaper
constantly being produced. They will use those weapons, sooner or later.

Nevertheless, the Middle East does not matter much to USA if we can stay
out of the wars. Middle east wars have been going on for thousands of
years with little impact on the USA until 1973.

High gas and oil prices would be great to force Americans to exercise
more and quit over-heating and over air-conditioning their houses thus
reducing disease.

Low gas and oil prices are also ok so people can pay down debt, eat
healthier food, and buy more gym memberships,... It is a win-win war
for USA -- we are not fighting (hopefully). Kerry has done nothing to
protect the Mexican border so he may as well ship out to Iraq or Ukraine
to get him out of USA. Permanently better. Take Obama and Clinton with
him.

Some companies will lose in either case. For example:

expensive oil: People walk to work so they won't need the
medical-industrial complex so much. This leaves them with money for
other products, like cars, houses, broccoli,...

cheap oil: People drive more so get sicker. They will need medical
care so other industries will suffer. People won't be buying so many new
cars, houses, broccoli ...

Price fluctuations cannot keep the economy from getting larger and
larger over time. Price fluctuations can only cause people to buy some
products instead of other products.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Perkins_(author)

Perkins graduated from the Tilton School in 1963. He subsequently
attended Middlebury College for two years before dropping out due to
lackluster grades. He later earned a Bachelor of Science degree in
business administration from Boston University in 1968. He was a Peace
Corps Volunteer in Ecuador from 1968 to 1970. an expert on indigenous
cultures and shamanism, a teacher and writer who used this expertise to
promote ecology and sustainability. He spent the 1970s working for the
Boston strategic-consulting firm Chas. T. Main; he claims to have been
screened for this job by the National Security Agency (NSA) and
subsequently hired by Einar Greve, a member of the firm (alleged by
Perkins to have been acting as an NSA liaison, a claim which Greve has
denied). Perkins's time at Chas T. Main, an engineering consultancy,
provides the basis for his subsequent published claims that, as an
"economic hit man", he was charged with inducing developing countries to
borrow large amounts of money, designated to pay for questionable
infrastructure investments, but ultimately with a view to making the
debt-laden countries more dependent, economically and politically, upon
the West.


On 6/26/14, Ron wrote:
> Regarding oil prices John Perkins ("Confessions of an Economic
> Hitman") in a recent USAWatchdog.com interview gives a 60% probability
> of oil going to between $160 and $250 per barrel with deepening
> mideast fighting.

Friday, June 27, 2014

ISIS Iraq Re: Wagging the dog again?

Where is the CIA? NSA? Kerry? Hillary Clinton?  Why have they not been warning about ISIS threat unravelling USA puppet government. 

I have been puzzling over who Is ISIS and funding but info is dubious filtered by ptb. Guessing that rich Sunnis have been planning this for 10 years. Obvious that USA will get tired of wasting money in Iraq. Now they make their move. 

USA Better improve VA hospitals or face losing elections and nobody join military to support wider agenda. 

Many domestic spending needs better than pouring money down Iraq rat holes. 

ISIS may have help from USA groups who will get more money after USA pulls out of IRAQ.  Weapons systems. TV. Drugs. Welfare home construction. Junk food companies. 

Many potential co-conspirators or other lobbyists and pressure groups acting in the open or in secret. 

On Jun 27, 2014,"Bob Wrote:

I just watched evening news interviewing a few "ISIS members." Were they mercenaries? I would guess so but their dress and equipment really stump me. I just checked weather in Iraq and it's been 115F for weeks now, will hit over 120 as summer wears on. These guys were in Toyota trucks a few weeks ago but have suddenly graduated to nice full size American pickups somehow.

 

The ones I saw on MSM (and there were about a hundred I'd guess, that I could see) were dressed totally in black from head to toe, and the black was not at all dirty, but positively immaculate. The black didn't fade from the sun like my black T shirts do - must be really good stuff! The only part of their faces that showed were their eyes. OK it's 120F, and these folks are eager to casually sit around in the open sun and rant outdoors in that heat or ride in the back of pickups as long as the cameras roll(?)  I just don't get it. Even their black flag was spotless after driving hundreds of miles through a dusty desert.

 

I could only see a hundred or so, but we're told they number a few thousand and they scare the bejeebers out of all the Armies in the area which are 20 -30X their size! They've taken over a huge refinery, so now they have to sell the refined products to customers somewhere. How will they do business? If they're "recruiting" Americans from our colleges, I want to know if our American recruits will wear heavy black uniforms in 120F heat, as long as they have daily dry cleaner service.

 

OK, what am I missing here? Where are the incubator babies? Do any of our "journalists" ask intelligent questions and do they just hang out over there in air conditioned studios with fake sand behind them??

 

Emboldened ISIS Threatens Americans on Twitter

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Supporters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have launched a viral propaganda campaign on Twitter threatening to attack the United States and its interests if America acts militarily against the group in Iraq.

These threats have been delivered through messages on ISIS's #CalamityWillBefallUS hashtag and feature images of the 9/11 attacks; dead American soldiers; the body of slain U.S. Ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens; a threatening message from Anwar al-Awlaki, the late leader of Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP); and the Nick Berg beheading video, among others.

"We will kill your people and transform America to a river of blood :)!" a poster tweeting under the name "Miqdad remain #" said in a post on the #CalamityWillBefallUS hashtag.

The threats are posted in English as well as in Arabic. For example, the ISIS-linked Al-Battar Media Foundation sent out a tweet Wednesday night telling supporters that "Tweeting in English is preferred" in a Twitter campaign that it planned for Friday that it is calling a "Warning to American People."

The United States has sent military advisers to Iraq. There is talk of possible airstrikes, but Secretary of State John Kerry seemed to rule them out in the near term. Bombing now "would be a complete and total act of irresponsibility," Kerry said, because of Iraq's political environment, which offers "nothing there that provides the capacity for success."

In a separate interview, Kerry dismissed ISIS's threats, saying the group did not yet have the capability to carry them out.

ISIS's Twitter intimidation campaign, therefore, may be a combination of recruiting propaganda and an attempt to drive public support down for any future American strikes.

ISIS says it will target every American embassy around the world with car bombs should the U.S. attack Iraq, according to an image posted by a user @BZEAA.

"... EACH and EVERY #American is targeted, whether he lives in or outside the #US! …," the Al-Battar Media Foundation warned Wednesday. The foundation also warned of a pending 9/11-style attack, saying it would happen in an "UNEXPECTED PLACE."

Mohamed al-Jizrawi, an ISIS supporter with 2,000 Twitter followers, similarly warned that U.S. embassies, interests and citizens around the world would be targeted should the Obama administration increase American military involvement in Iraq.

Additionally, threats have been leveled against companies in the Arab world, stating they will be a "legitimate target for every Muslim" if they employ Americans.

Likewise, American doctors have also been threatened with a message bearing ISIS's logo stating, "Every American doctor working in any country will be slaughtered if America attack (sic) Iraq."

Social media tools have become essential for ISIS to obtain new recruits and funding, Western and Arab sources told the Wall Street Journal.

Besides threatening the United States, ISIS uses social media to find recruits and provide instant reports about its battlefield maneuvers. A slickly produced recruitment video tweeted by ISIS members last week telling Western Muslims to join their jihad exemplifies the terror group's social-media strategy. Thousands of Western Muslims already have answered the call – many of whom are fighting for ISIS.

Combating ISIS's use of social media is a bit like playing whack-a-mole because the terrorists replace closed social-media portals with new ones as soon as the old ones are closed.

One thing is for sure, ISIS's use of social media means jihadist propaganda has come out of the shadows and into the public eye.

 

Thursday, June 26, 2014

Missouri pollution, diet, lifestyle and cancer

Some parts of Missouri have lots of chemical pollution. Home of
Monsanto called the "world's most evil corporation" getting rich off GMO
that it is the main inventor and proponent of. There are lead mines in
some areas and other mines, etc. Map of EPA superfund sites attached.
Nuclear reactors. Heavy agriculture in some areas. The large and
beautiful "Lake of the Ozarks" in central Missouri is heavily polluted
due to extensive development in decades past without enough rules and
regulations on septic, etc. The huge Missouri River is polluted due to
heavy agriculture and industry in the numerous states that it drains.

South Central Missouri is mostly clean and unpopulated. Too rugged and
rocky to farm, heavily forested, expensive to build and develop so is
relatively unspoiled. My watershed is vast amounts of pure air and
water, highly rated. Some areas are even better. These statistics are
carefully monitored and laws are being passed to keep the water clean.

Although chemicals in the environment are a big problem, I suspect the
bigger factor in cancer is diet high in sugar, flour and other refined
carbohydrates. Also heavy CAFO red meat consumption. Also lots of
tobacco and alcohol with low tax rates on it. Heavy use. Also legal and
illegal drugs. Little exercise and lots of driving. Lots of big fat
SUVs and pickups driven by fat people. I am surprised they are not
sicker than they are. Good business for doctors and the
medical-industrial establishment.

Still there are many healthy people and many slender ones and
anorexics. It seems that they over-react to so many fat people by
getting too skinny.

One reason I want to move out of here. Birds of a feather should flock
together. I am relatively healthy and have more in common with healthy
people. Minnesota is tied for the most healthy state and the best
education system, for example.

Your doctor may be influenced by ability to get paid for his work. Like
fewer poor illegal aliens and more insured middle class people who can
afford medical care.
> Joe,
>
> My urologist is moving back to Missouri. He stated there are many
> more cancers in that area than CA. due to chemical runoff. Probably
> lifestyle as well. Smoking =Bladder cancer.
>
> Ron
>
>
> On Thursday Joe wrote:
>
>
> As I expected, the ISIS scare drove up the price of gas 20 cents
> already. I paid $3.39 in Joplin Missouri and took the below photos
> behind the gas station. I drove through heavy rain and a huge black
> cloud, like night, to get there. But it was hazy sun in Joplin and
> Kansas. I thought I was driving into a tornado. Has been raining
> almost every day for months.
>
> I hear people actually screaming when they walk into a grocery store and
> see food prices going up and up. They don't realize that high food
> prices may lead to less food consumption. Most of the population around
> here is fat, obese, or extremely obese, and smoke and drink alcohol too
> much. Lots of diseases even though there are many sicker areas.
>
> High food and fuel prices are a blessing that may lead to reduced
> consumption and improved diet and more exercise like walking. They may
> even have to give up alcohol, tobacco and firearms. Maybe even cut back
> on drugs, legal and illegal, and education (bogus degrees) and debt and
> importing illegal Mexicans.
>
> USA needs 1000% inflation in the prices of sugar, flour, GMO, CAFO,
> gasoline, tobacco, marijuana and meth. The Fed needs to increase the
> Treasury bill interest rate to 10% at least, to discourage loans and
> increase rewards to savers. QE is the opposite of what is needed and
> has failed to increase core inflation much at all. Obama failed. Bush
> not much better.
>
>

How to live like a king for very little

How to live like a king for very little
By THOR HARRIS

Description: thor-witch-hat
<http://monofonuspress.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/thor-witch-hat.jpeg>


1. Don't smoke cigarettes.


2. Drive old Japanese cars. Easy and cheap to fix & they run for
fucking ever.


3. Buy most of your groceries from the produce section. Most of that
other shit is not actually food. You don't need it.


4. Ride your bike instead of driving as much as you can. You need the
exercise and gas is expensive.


5. Don't have kids. They're not miracles, they're people. 7 billion is
too fucking many. Find some other way to give your dull existence some
meaning. BTW they're expensive.


6. Get your clothes from thrift stores. With the physique you'll have
from riding your bike, you'll look hot wearing anything.


7. Learn to fix things. Tons of great books and youtube vids on fixing
anything. Or ask an old dude. People used to fix things. No shit.


8. Learn a trade – Carpentry, plumbing, electrical, auto mechanics,
tailoring, computer/electronics repair, something They can't fucking
outsource. No one gives a shit about your Masters in Dostoyevsky or
your high score on World of Warcraft…. fix something, dumbass, fix
something!


9. If you like booze, drink at home with your neighbors. Drunk driving
is for assholes, rich ones with lawyers.


10. Do people favors. It's called Cooperation. It's how the world
worked before money. They will return the favor, or someone will. No
shit. This really works.


11. Make things – Look around you. What do you see? Yah, shitty stuff
made by impoverished enslaved people far away. Pick anything. Make a
better one. People want good shit. You won't get rich, but you'll get by.


12. If you live in America – don't get sick and avoid injury. Wear
your fucking helmet and put lights on your bike.


13. Find work you love. If you can't do that, then find a job where
you love the people.


14. Junkies and addicts are like toddlers. They just want to shit all
over you and everything. The messes they make can get expensive. Avoid
them if you can.


15. Don't buy shit on credit, remember what happened to America? Cash
only, fuckers. Can't afford it? Don't fucking buy it!


16. Preventable expenses - STD's, abortions, DWI's, lung cancer, head
injuries, speeding tickets, cirrhosis of the liver.


17. Don't go on fancy dates if you're not fancy. Most people kind of
despise the rich anyway.


18. When you go see shows, bring a flask in. That way you can afford
to buy a record.


19. If you had told me 15 years ago that Coca Cola would put tap water
in plastic bottles and motherfuckers would BUY IT …… No fuckin way.


20. Don't get cable. Asshole. There is nothing on. I promise. $100 a
month ? Fuck no!


This list was edited by Stacey Yates with contributions from Jherek
Bishoff, Chad Raines & Amanda Palmer. We live in a wasteful society.
Live well. It don't take much. Really.

*Monofonus Press**
*PO Box 6386*
*Austin, TX 78762*
*info@monofonuspress.com <mailto:info@monofonuspress.com>

Rich 1% art Paintings $$ Jackson Pollock, brain MIT

Perfect temperature. Some clouds coming in but had a great walk and hour
wading at a relatively uncrowded beach, photo below.

As the rich inflate themselves they have to pay outrageous $ to get the
best art. Video of the greatest artist of the 20th century in action and
discussing his philosophy. I don't do much words or any music, but I
have a good feel for visuals and could easily be a painter (high speed).
Half of the human brain is the visual system
http://newsoffice.mit.edu/1996/visualprocessing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jackson_Pollock

In November 2006, Pollock's No. 5, 1948 became the world's most
expensive painting, when it was sold privately to an undisclosed buyer
for the sum of $140,000,000. Another artist record was established in
2004, when No. 12 (1949), a medium-sized drip painting that had been
shown in the United States Pavilion at the 1950 Venice Biennale, fetched
$11.7 million at Christie's, New York. In 2012, Number 28, 1951, one of
the artist's combinations of drip and brushwork in shades of silvery
gray with red, yellow and shots of blue and white, also sold at
Christie's, New York, for $20.5 million—$23 million with fees—within its
estimated range of $20 million to $30 million. In 2013 Pollock's "Number
19" (1948) was sold by Christies for a reported $58,363,750 during an
auction that ultimately reached $495 million total sales in one night
which Christies reports as a record to date as the most expensive
auction of contemporary art

Jackson Pollock, was an influential American painter and a major figure
in the abstract expressionist movement. He was well known for his unique
style of drip painting. During his lifetime, Pollock enjoyed
considerable fame and notoriety, a major artist of his generation.
Regarded as reclusive, he had a volatile personality, and struggled with
alcoholism for most of his life. In 1945, he married the artist Lee
Krasner, who became an important influence on his career and on his
legacy. Pollock died at the age of 44 in an alcohol-related, single-car
accident; he was driving. Pollock was born in Cody, Wyoming, in 1912.
Stella and LeRoy Pollock were Presbyterian; they were Irish and Scots-Irish

<iframe width="420" height="315"
src="//www.youtube.com/embed/CrVE-WQBcYQ" frameborder="0"
allowfullscreen></iframe>

$3.39 gasoline, food inflation

As I expected, the ISIS scare drove up the price of gas 20 cents
already. I paid $3.39 in Joplin Missouri and took the below photos
behind the gas station. I drove through heavy rain and a huge black
cloud, like night, to get there. But it was hazy sun in Joplin and
Kansas. I thought I was driving into a tornado. Has been raining
almost every day for months.

I hear people actually screaming when they walk into a grocery store and
see food prices going up and up. They don't realize that high food
prices may lead to less food consumption. Most of the population around
here is fat, obese, or extremely obese, and smoke and drink alcohol too
much. Lots of diseases even though there are many sicker areas.

High food and fuel prices are a blessing that may lead to reduced
consumption and improved diet and more exercise like walking. They may
even have to give up alcohol, tobacco and firearms. Maybe even cut back
on drugs, legal and illegal, and education (bogus degrees) and debt and
importing illegal Mexicans.

USA needs 1000% inflation in the prices of sugar, flour, GMO, CAFO,
gasoline, tobacco, marijuana and meth. The Fed needs to increase the
Treasury bill interest rate to 10% at least, to discourage loans and
increase rewards to savers. QE is the opposite of what is needed and
has failed to increase core inflation much at all. Obama failed. Bush
not much better.

Supporting Evidence for Aspartame-Alzheimer's Link Emerges

I suspect anything sweet will cause Alzheimer's or some other degenerative disease. 

Flour and any starch gets converted to sugar by digestion.   We chewed a cracker until it became sweet in elementary school.  Enzymes in saliva first stage if digestion. 
-------------

Methanol Toxicity Leads to Persistent Alzheimer's Symptoms

A recently published two-part paper2, 3highlights what Dr. Monte has been saying for many years now—that methanol acts differently in animals and humans. 

Methanol-fed mice presented with partial "Alzheimer's disease-like symptoms," while rhesus monkeys fed a 3% methanol solution developed persistent pathological changes related to the development of Alzheimer's. According to the authors:

"A recently established link between formaldehyde, a methanol metabolite, and Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology has provided a new impetus to investigate the chronic effects of methanol exposure.

This paper expands this investigation to the non-human primate, rhesus macaque... [M]ethanol feeding led to persistent memory decline in the monkeys that lasted 6 months beyond the feeding regimen...

Most notably, the presence of amyloid plaque formations in the monkeys highlighted a marked difference in animal systems used in AD investigations, suggesting that the innate defenses in mice against methanol toxicity may have limited previous investigations into AD pathology.

Nonetheless, these findings support a growing body of evidence that links methanol and its metabolite formaldehyde to AD pathology." 


http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2014/06/26/aspartame-methanol-alzheimers.aspx?e_cid=20140626Z1_DNL_art_1&utm_source=dnl&utm_medium=email&utm_content=art1&utm_campaign=20140626Z1&et_cid=DM47148&et_rid=565715756

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Cure Degenerative joint disease

Completely change diet to eliminate offending chemicals. Even coffee has chemicals. Change to tea. Get rid of dairy, grains, meats.  Eat lots of cabbage collards broccoli etc.  Also raw nuts of all kinds. 

Lose weight to take pressure off joints. 

Exercise all day to keep fluids moving to joints and everywhere. 

Sunshine.  Barefoot. Water. 


Osteoarthritis

For overweight people, weight loss may be an important factor. 

Patient education has been shown to be helpful in the self-management of arthritis.

 It decreases pain, improves function, reduces stiffness and fatigue, and reduces medical usage.[41]

Patient education can provide on average 20% more pain relief when compared to NSAIDs alone in patients with hip OA.

[41]

Physical measures

Moderate exercise is beneficial with respect to pain and function in those with osteoathritis of the knee and hip.[42][43]

These exercises should occur at least three times per week.[44] physical therapies[45]massage therapy



War comes home to USA

Deflation makes drugs and SWAT teams too cheap. Danger to people, dogs, cats. Fire cops and teach them to grow broccoli. Better for USA. Close Mexican border until drugs disappear. Ban travel to the middle east. Interesting ACLU website. 

www.aclu.org/war-comes-home-excessive-militarization-american-policing


Monday, June 23, 2014

McCaskill says George Will 'dead wrong,' but column helped focus on campus sexual assault

"a supposed campus epidemic of rape" had made

"victimhood a coveted status that confers privileges," and that

"victims proliferate" as a result.


George Will 'dead wrong,' but column helped focus on campus sexual assault

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/mccaskill-says-george-will-dead-wrong-but-column-helped-focus/article_668ee32e-9cbd-5706-aa3b-808fd52819da.html

QE Wealth Hits High As Rich Get Richer

Trickle down works, just slowly. One problem is that the rich are moving
overseas and traveling which does not help USA workers. Also the rich
buy foreign products which does not help USA workers. Also the rich save
instead of spend. Those savings go to banks who may send the money
overseas instead of invest in the USA, or just pay themselves fat bonuses.

A better policy to stimulate the economy than QE2 would be to simply
double military retirement checks, social security checks, etc.

Wealth Hits High As Rich Get Richer

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB20001424052702304710104579606171956872840

Americans' wealth hit a fresh record in the first quarter amid a rise in
home values and stock prices, a trajectory poised to continue as U.S.
markets push higher but one that doesn't necessarily figure to rev up
the sluggish recovery.

The net worth of U.S. households and nonprofit organizations —the value
of homes, stocks and other assets minus debts and other liabilities—
rose roughly 2%, or about $1.5 trillion, between January and March to
$81.8 trillion, the highest on record, according to a report by the
Federal Reserve released Thursday. The figures aren't adjusted for
inflation or population growth.

You are tracked online and offline 6000 data points on everybody!

www.propublica.org/article/everything-we-know-about-what-data-brokers-know-about-you 

I have assumed this happened by 2000 or before. 

Your data is everywhere.  

Easy to buy and sell your data. 

Hard to hide. 


Sunday, June 22, 2014

beach hi 90 degrees

Photo of my next door neighbor from London England, his wife, and
another lady I assume his adult daughter. Looking at a paragliding in
the distance. They are quite tan. I guess they have houses in other
sunny climates too. Usually they just stay 2 weeks per year. His wife
goes back tomorrow after 1 week. But he will stay a few more weeks this
time. Very orderly, efficient people with good verbal abilities.

Crowded beach temperatures 90 day 70 night they say, feels cooler. Kids
go crazy splashing water all over. Probably extra energy from the
electrons in the water. Need to use a different beach that is less crowded.

Lots of wildflowers still although season winding down. Full summer
growth now. Photo of a blue one, rather rare, but a forest of them near
my home.

Re: 5 years after the Great Recession: Where are we now?

Ron,

I think the prevailing wisdom is correct. The economy started growing
over five years ago. By definition a growing economy is not in
recession. Different areas always may have a different experience.
Some areas have been declining for decades (Fresno), other areas have
been booming or doing quite well. I am in sort of a "middle" area and
can visibly see "middle" results. I can travel, talk to people and read
the news and can see that some areas are doing better and others worse.
The same sorts of discussions and relations to published statistics have
been going on for decades. Now is no different. 10 years ago I was in
a panic because I knew something was going on, like a bubble and crash
coming. Now the economy is not newsworthy. Not much going on. That is
why the media are so focused on ISIS, Iraq, Syria, Iran.

The rich getting lots of money is not news. This has been going on for
centuries. Read at Piketty. We are returning to normal with the rich
getting richer. This time, though, many of the poor 99% are doing
fairly well too, with more buying power than ever. There are more fancy
toys at cheaper prices, like smart phones, fancy clothes, foods,
perfumes, cars, bikes .. Even poor on welfare are doing well. The
subterranean economy is booming as well. The "poor" have more drugs and
cheaper drugs than ever before. And guns, vice, etc. The chance of
revolution is nil. They haven't even get anybody to show up for 99%
demonstrations for years now.

A big war is highly unlikely. The rich around the world are uniting to
better exploit the masses. A war would hurt the wealth of the rich and
maybe kill some of them, such as the bombings of Germany and Japan in WWII.

Instead of war look for lots of minor skirmishes like drones over ISIS
and Al-Quedah, more NSA and CIA spying around the world, etc.
Profitable for arms vendors and helps oppress Muslims and other
undesirables. Deflation has made police and military toys affordable
and common all over. Lots of poor would like to use those toys free but
the government will even give them a fairly decent salary to play with
those toys. Everybody happy except for poor Muslim victims.

Most of the USA population is over-housed, over-fed, and
over-entertained. The complainers are excessively greedy, in debt,
living in ghetto or barrio, eating too much junk food, wasted money on a
worthless college education or big house too far from work, living off
payday loans, driving a fancier car than they need, etc. There have
always been idiot greedy compulsive buyers and borrowers. Now is no
different. There may be more idiots now, but not the majority.

Overall the economy is better now than ever in my lifetime, the way
people define the economy. My values are different, but by their values
people are getting more of what they want than in years past. Sort of
amazing what all people expect and get nowadays compared to years past.
Even folks on welfare. There is no end in sight. One of the first
assumptions taught in economics is insatiability. People always want
more. The economic growth trend will not stop except for good reason
such as global warming, ebola, etc. The rich may make some mistakes but
they want to keep the current system running indefinitely. They run the
government, media, business, religion, education, etc. So they have
enough tools to keep the system running and part of that will keep the
sheeple happy and productive so the empire grows larger. Been going on
a long time in the USA and spreading around the world.
> Joe,
>
> Who decided "The Great Recession" or "The Greater Depression"
> was over five years ago. I find this premise false and hilarious if it
> was not so deceitful. Every article from the controlled corporate
> press will begin with "the recession that ended five years ago." This
> is a false premise based on trillions of dollars being printed and
> given to banks to spend for the 1%. This is comparable to gasoline
> being poured on smoldering embers and declaring that the fire is
> getting bigger. It is an interim period of time that allows the 1% to
> exchange increasingly worthless fiat paper for tangibles while the 99%
> bemoans the loss of buying power of the dollar of which they see less
> and less of. This will not end well. Actually if I were setting policy
> for the state run press I would not promote the recession being over
> as this would raise false expectations among the unwashed masses
> possibly ending in one or more 1789 moments. I would exaggerate and
> lie to the effect that the 1% were feeling the pinch also. When a
> large scale war is finally initiated by the US central bankers to hide
> their plundering of the public it will become easier to believe the
> economy was destroyed by some external enemy.
>
> Ron
>
>
> From economist Stephen Levy's view in Palo Alto, Calif., things today
> are as good as they were before the Great Recession, maybe better.
> On a typically gorgeous May morning in the Bay Area, he woke up to
> find that the top newspaper headline was about businesses in San
> Francisco trying to find workers because unemployment there had fallen
> to a little above 4%.
> The next day, the front pages of local papers were splashed with
> photos of Google's new driverless cars.
> Living in Silicon Valley "is a huge plus," Levy said.
> Incomes have indeed jumped in technology-rich areas, as well as other
> highly educated centers such as Boston and Seattle.
> America's energy boom, meanwhile, has knocked the jobless rate down to
> a mere 2.7% in North Dakota and helped re-invigorate Louisiana and
> other states along the Gulf Coast.
> Meanwhile, cities such as Pittsburgh and Minneapolis that rely more on
> healthcare have sprung back relatively quickly, as have places with
> low housing and operating costs, particularly Texas and other parts of
> the South.
> Things have been slower for folks along such industrial belts as
> Illinois and Michigan, even though carmakers have rebounded and other
> manufacturers are starting to make more of their products in the U.S.
> Many areas still haven't come back from the real estate collapse;
> unemployment remains in double digits through much of California's
> Central Valley, for example, and reviving economies in Georgia and
> Arizona still have further to go.
> The recession hit the housing-bubble economies of the West and South
> hardest, but now those states are again leading the way in migration
> and home building.
> And a familiar pattern is returning to bolster growth in those areas:
> Young people are escaping rural America for the city and older
> residents are settling in warmer climates.
> *If you're rich, the recovery looks great*
> Household net worth — what you have, minus what you owe — rose to a
> record $81.7 trillion in the first quarter.
> But that growth in wealth has not been even.
> Over the last five years, the rich got richer.
> That's because wealthier Americans are far more likely to own stocks,
> and household assets in equities have more than doubled since 2008 to
> $20.6 trillion earlier this year.
> Moreover, for the wealthy, a downturn or a slow recovery can provide
> advantages:
> With real interest rates near zero, the price of assets — investment
> property, securities, luxury goods and so forth — remains relatively
> cheap.
>
> 5 years after the Great Recession: Where are we now?
>
> http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-recession-economy-20140622-story.html
>
>

FOX News: Missouri training teachers to carry concealed weapons in the classroom

Good deal for gun companies. 

May yield statistical data on if the idea works. 

Probably a good idea to avoid schools whether armed or not. Teachers often not smart. Probably not good shots either. 

Missouri training teachers to carry concealed weapons in the classroom.



Oil, War, Re: Iraq invasion. Madeleine Albright. Bill Clinton

Bob,

War was decided before any findings on Iraq weapons of mass
destruction. The purpose was to increase oil prices. The war did
increase oil prices -- Graph attached. Gas was cheap for a long time
before the war. I paid 91 cents off 101 in San Fernando Valley Los
Angeles around 1999 ARCO (owned by BP). We are way above that now.

9/11 NYC WTC attack and Iraq deception opened the possibility of war to
boost oil prices. Clinton's victory in Bosnia motivated Bush to try to
win in Iraq. Looks like Iraq may be lost but oil price remains high!
So the Bush Family and Friends get richer. Bill Clinton also probably
benefit from Bosnia and Iraq wars and current turmoil. Democrats and
Republicans often get funding from the same donors, reported and via
other means.

The current ISIS Syria Iraq and other turmoils and troop movements will
help keep prices high. I notice gas prices creeping up about a penny a
day recently.

Time to invest in horses and houses near work to minimize driving. In
addition to the mess in the Middle East there is increased demand for
oil all around the world as people are increasingly able to afford oil.
I hear of new supplies but so far these have not pushed oil prices
downward. Probably the best bet is for gradually increasing oil
prices. Several percent per year inflation. Many young people are not
getting drivers licenses and buying smart phones instead to keep in
touch instead of travel. Maybe someday there will be more downward
pressure on oil prices but currently the trend is upward.

Joe
>
> You have me stumped on the Albright/Clinton ultimatum. Do I remember
> incorrectly? I recall Hans Blix taking the UN weapons team BACK in 3
> weeks before Bush invaded. They searched the CIA's list of 300
> suspected WMD targets and found nothing. ZERO. Nada. Exactly as Saddam
> Hussein had said.
>
> Despite a full search showing NOTHING, Bush chose to invade because it
> was already in the falsified "intelligence" that Tony Blair was
> recently investigated for in the Chilcott Inquiry. The results are
> STILL being withheld because the US can NOT bear to see the truth
> expose both Blair and Bush to a trial in the Hague! It's been pointed
> out repeatedly that MI6 and CIA /already knew/ there were no weapons
> in Iraq. So why are we repeating this ghastly scenario under a
> president of the "opposite" party?
>
> BB
>
> Should not pour any more money down Iraq rat-hole.
>
> Waste of troops. Drop bombs and leave.
>
> No Age of Aquarius in the Garden of Eden. We gave them a chance and
> they blew it. Primitive tribes find their own way.
>
> Bill Clinton psychedelic trip bad idea. Like Bosnia. Etc. No Hillary
> for President.
>
> Madeleine Albright
> <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madeleine_Albright#Secretary_of_State>
>
> Both Bill Clinton and Albright insisted that an attack on Hussein
> could be stopped only if Hussein reversed his decision to halt arms
> inspections.
>
> "Iraq has a simple choice. Reverse course or face the consequences,"
> Albright said.^[65]
> <file:///%5C%5Cvar%5Cmobile%5CApplications%5C2168BFEF-C659-4BF7-8D86-F5A0EC1C98F8%5C#cite_note-65>
>
>
> In 2000, Albright meet Kim Jong-il <file:///%5C%5Cwiki%5CKim_Jong-il>,
> the communist leader ofNorth Korea <file:///%5C%5Cwiki%5CNorth_Korea>,
> ^[66]
> <file:///%5C%5Cvar%5Cmobile%5CApplications%5C2168BFEF-C659-4BF7-8D86-F5A0EC1C98F8%5C#cite_note-66>
>
>
> Albright on January 8, 2001. U.S. would continue to press Iraq to
> destroy all its weapons of mass destruction as a condition of lifting
> economic sanctions, even after the end of the Clinton administration
> on January 20, 2001.
>
>
>

Re: build drone. use deflation to start big company cheap

Bob,

I have long thought homes are a Rube Goldberg device that requires huge
amounts of paperwork and money just for a place to live. Amish simple
methods are more effective.

The problem is that most people don't have the skills, time, and energy
to build a house or even deal with contractors. There are kit homes,
manufactured homes, tiny homes, and many ways to simplify home building
but they don't work yet. 3D printing may help some day. I started
looking at 3D architecture circa 1990. Used heavily by engineers by
architects but most people don't use it.

Thus the overly complicated home processes we see today. Probably more
efficient than the education, medical, and military industries but much
in need of improvement. Too many parasites. I have long wanted to beat
the system and build my own but think I have abandoned that idea. Too
much work and I like to move too often to take advantage of a home in a
fixed location.

Joe

> Good idea, Joe. Better yet, invest in a 3D concrete printer and build durable, permanent houses economically -- it will piss off labor unions, banks, realtors, mortgage brokers etc. But the people will love you!
>
> BB
>
>
> Subject: build drone. use deflation to start big company cheap
>
> $79 deluxe starter kit for "raspberry pi" single board computer that can power drones, robots, spy devices, or anything. Now is a great time to start a company. Rich people need good investments to get richer. Let them invest in you!
>
> http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2012/0521/midas-list-tidemark-christian-gheorghe-startup-tech-thrifty-does-it.html
>
> How To Launch A Billion Dollar Startup On A Shoestring
>
> It?s a great time for entrepreneurs. Open-source software alternatives keep improving. Cloud computing prices keep dropping every ten weeks or so. Funding an ambitious startup?s first few months requires only a personal Visa card. talking about forming a $100 million fund to invest solely in cloud computing startups.
>
> http://www.amazon.com/CanaKit-Raspberry-Ultimate-Starter-Components/dp/B00G1PNG54/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1401926512&sr=8-1&keywords=raspberrypi
>
> $79 CanaKit Raspberry Pi Ultimate Starter Kit (Over 35 Components:
> Raspberry Pi + WiFi Dongle + 8GB SD Card + Case + Power Supply and many
> more)
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raspberry_Pi
>
> The Raspberry Pi is a credit-card-sized single-board computer developed in the UK by the Raspberry Pi Foundation with the intention of promoting the teaching of basic computer science. uses Linux kernel-based operating systems. The Raspberry Pi Foundation and Oxford, Cambridge and RSA Examinations MOOC (Massive Open Online Course)
>
> AdaCore as one of the most exciting parts of the project.
> AdaCore is a computer software company that provides open source software tools and expertise for the development of mission-critical, safety-critical, and security-critical software. Ada and GNAT Pro are used in long-lived applications where safety, security, and reliability are critical. Domains include commercial and defense avionics, air traffic control, railroad systems, space, energy, financial services and medical devices.
> Its customers include:
> BAE Systems
> Boeing
> Embraer
> Eurocontrol
> Hewlett-Packard
> Lockheed Martin
> Logica CMG
> NATO
> Philips Semiconductors
> Rockwell Collins
> Saab
> Secunet
> Sema Group
> SGI
> Thales Group
> Ultra Electronics
>
> Students at Vermont Technical College are using AdaCore s GNAT development environment along with Altran Praxis SPARK tools on two NASA-sponsored programs with large software components.
> For the first project, the students are designing and building both the hardware and software for an Arctic Sea Ice Buoy that measures wind speed, direction, temperature and GPS position. Data from the buoy are sent back to the home base via the Iridium satellite constellation. The students are producing the prototype buoy for the study of sea/ice interaction in the Arctic Ocean, and a follow-on grant will fund placement of between 10 and 20 buoys on the Arctic Ocean ice.
> The second project is a continuation of work on CubeSat, a space satellite 10 cm in diameter with a mass of 1 kg.
>
> Dasher robot
> Graduate students at M lardalen University are designing, building and programming the Dasher robot using AdaCore s GNAT toolset, on Wind River Systems VxWorks real-time operating system. The Dasher project s goal is to create a humanoid (two-legged) robot that can run 100 meters in
> 9.5 seconds, which would break the human record.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>