Friday, May 31, 2013
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
To save planet earth USA needs to restore the large herds of cattle on the great plains (I was born on the formerly largest ranch in the world).
Traditional organic grass fed beef is very healthy. Unfortunately people nowadays are eating too much GMO sugar, wheat, corn, and soybeans and other plant foods that are not healthy leading to diabetes, obesity, cancer, heart attacks, etc. Missouri has quite a diverse population subgroups and in the Branson resort I am learning to tell the populations apart by diet and lifestyle. Many are very unhealthy.
It is amazing that what is good food for the people is good for the environment. Both require return to traditional practices. More cows, horses, trains, etc.
the best way to not only stop desertification, but also reverse it, by dramatically increasing the number of grazing livestock.
In the early 1900s, the grasslands of the southern US plains were rapidly plowed up and turned into wheat fields.
The ramifications of this wheat boom can still be felt today, as wheat (along with corn and soybeans) remains one of the most common crops grown in the US. In fact, wheat, along with corn and rice, make up 60 percent of human caloric intake1 -- a dietary shift that is contributing to the rising rates of insulin resistance and its related chronic degenerative diseases now plaguing many developed countries.
These “amber waves of grain” had another unforeseen effect as well, an almost “other worldly” manmade disaster known as The Dust Bowl, which is chronicled in the PBS film.
The Worst Manmade Ecological Disaster in American History
In the early 1900s, farmers swarmed the southern Plains to take advantage of cheap land offers, even though the area – with its high winds, hot summers and frequent droughts – was not well suited for agriculture. During World War I, in particular, wheat was a sought-after commodity. With wheat prices soaring, and promises from land developers that “rain follows the plow,” farmers quickly turned millions of acres of grasslands into wheat fields, paving the way for what would be one of the worst manmade disasters ever recorded.
As History reported:2“When the drought and Great Depression hit in the early 1930s, the wheat market collapsed. Once the oceans of wheat, which replaced the sea of prairie grass that anchored the topsoil into place, dried up, the land was defenseless against the winds that buffeted the Plains.”
“Black Blizzards” Crossed the Plains
Monday, May 27, 2013
Bankers were burned by inflation in the 1970s so they established the current deflationary regime. Hippie draft dodgers benefited from that inflation. Inthe 1950s and 1960s banks were run by Veterans of WWII and Korea, mostly male white Protestant. Lots of bricks and mortar. Pay was low and risk was low. Bank failure was rare http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_U.S._bank_failures
This peaceful state of affairs was disrupted was by the 1974 Muslim OPEC Oil Embargo. Oil prices quadrupled causing double digit inflation that carried interest rates higher. (Interest rates tend to be a little higher than the inflation rate r=rr+inflation, see attached). Franklin National Bank wentbankrupt (run by Sicilian Mafia).
Banks make their money by borrowing short and lending long. Depositors put their money in for short periods of timebut want long term loans (human nature, they want more now, impatient). Banks lost a lot of money as inflation and interest rates went higher and higher in the 1970s. They had to pay highinterest rates to attract deposits but they were stuck with long term loans at low interest rates. Disintermediation got worse during the 1980s leading to the collapse of the Savings and Loan industry and expansion of derivatives hedging contracts to reduce such bankruptcies.
Many liberal hippie draft dodgers graduated from high school collegebefore the 1970s inflation took hold. They took easy jobs as police, teachers, firefighters, city bureaucrats, professors etc. They took out low interest rate loans for 1, 2, or more houses. In California and many other states those houses greatly escalated in price. Plus they have lots of pensions, collected jewelry, cars, boats, coins, art, rugs, and other assets that did well in the inflation.
At the same time the Veterans working in banks were not getting paid much because thebanks were not profitable because of the inflation. So the hippie draft-dodgers were winning while the Veterans were losing (and retired poor).Then 1979 along came deregulationand Volcker-Reagan proved that by holding back the money supply and spiking interest rates that inflation could be reduced. This set the stage for declining interest rates that continued until present. Now interest rates are near zero, back to where they were in the great depression. Graph attached
Bankers learned their lesson. They have increased their power over government and will force deflation for the indefinite future. Obama has bought into their agenda although he is a socialist leaning liberal Black Muslim sympathizer. Blacks and Muslims are the poorest in the world-- they need inflation. Obama would like to inflate blacks more but the bankers paid for his electionand will pay forthe next president too, no matter which party wins. So Obama is helping the deflationbecause of money in politics. So contrary to their instincts, liberal Obama joins with liberal Bernanke to deflate the poor by helping rich bankers hoard money and pay themselves bonuses. It would probably be a worse deflation of the poor under the republicans -- reduction of food stamps, unemployment, social security, medicare, medicaid, etc. Bob Dole called for closingthe Republican Party for repairs
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/05/26/bob_dole_republican_party_should_put_a_sign_up_that_says_closed_for_repairs.html The article below is interesting. Schillings book is essential reading for those interested in inflationand deflation. There will probably be more deflation and concentrationof wealth in the hands of 1% rich bankers and others. There is actually much more deflation than what the government statistics indicate.
Why Global Economies Face an Age of Deflation
By/*A. Gary Shilling*/
In recent years, monetary and fiscal stimulus across the world have led to the assumption that serious inflation, if not hyperinflation, is on its way.
I believe chronic deflation is more likely.
The expectation of rising prices is reasonable.
Mostpeople have only experienced inflation. The last meaningful episode of deflation was in the 1930s. That’s also the last time the U.S. was truly at peace. Deflation is a peacetime phenomenon.
The U.S.’s bouts of inflation, however, have historically occurred during wartime. That applies not only to shooting wars, but to theCold War and the War on Poverty. These are periods when vastoverspending by the federal government is combined with a robust private economy. These aren’t the conditions we have today, when government stimulus can’t offset private-sector weakness.
In the 95 wartime years since 1749, wholesale price increases averaged 5.7 percent. In the 168 peacetime years, they fell 1.2 percent annually on average. As the U.S. withdraws from Iraq andAfghanistan and asdefense spending declines, peacetime conditions are likely to prevail.
Furthermore, we tend to have biases that cloud our perception of inflation. When we pay higher prices, we think inflation is at work, but we believe lower prices are a result of our smart shopping and bargaining skills. Consumer Prices
Even though deflation has been forestalled in the past decade, disinflation -- declining rates of inflation -- has prevailed since the early 1980s. Indeed, the consumer-price index fell in November and December and was unchanged in January. For February, the cost of living in the U.S. was up 0.7 percent, the first increase in four months and the biggest since June 2009. Nonetheless, expectations for inflation over the next 10 years are for a continued drop.
Deleveraging: In a normal economy, chronic deflation would already be well established. Our global economy, however, is dominated by deleveraging in the private sector and financial institutions, and is highly deflationary. These actions are overpowering the effects of stimulus programs since 2007. Even with all the government measures, the U.K. is in a recession, as is the euro area. China ’s gross-domestic-product growth has slowed considerably and the U.S. reported a mere 0.1 percent annual increase in real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012.
The liquidity created bycentral banks is tiny compared with the destruction wrought by deleveraging financial sectors. The decline in securitizations is just one aspect of this contraction. Banks are eliminating or writing down off- balance-sheet vehicles substantially. Governments are increasingcapital requirements even as banks dump assets to raisecapital ratios .
Increased Saving: The U.S. household-savings rate fell to 1 percent in 2005 from 12 percent in the early 1980s. This decline of about one-half a percentage point per year meant that consumer spending rose on average around a half percentage point faster than GDP, adding about the same growth to total economic activity once multiplier effects are included. U.S. imports drove growth in Asian and other export-led economies.
Americans are now being forced to save more. First, as a result of the volatility in stocks
Sunday, May 26, 2013
He should be enough of a theorist to know that inflation and deflation do not make any difference, per se. The main problem is unexpected inflation and deflation. People can shield themselves from inflation by contracts if they expect inflation. Similarly for deflation. Your quote on deflation must be out of context. He would be clear on whether it was expected, unexpected, who was doing the expecting and what models they were using for doing the expecting.
The talk on TV about inflation and deflation is mostly about unexpected inflation and deflation, not expected inflation and deflation. They are not clear in what they are saying, usually, because they are not clear on what they are thinking. That is one reason I avoid journalism, and I avoid even professors talking to journalists. They use words in different ways to appeal to various audiences that are not precise enough to determine if it is correct or not. I glance over headlines to get the general gist of what their presentations were about.
Once professors decide to be precise they drag out mathematics and equations with careful definitions. That will not be understandable to journalists lay persons so it is rarely done.
Anything Bernanke says must be taken in the context of Obama's powers and the congress. As I said liberals want inflation so he has to show some inflation, but not enough to anger the bankers that he represents. Thus the 2% goal.
There is no shortcut to understanding monetary economics. People have to spend 8 years in college after being born in a banking or business family, preferably. Some internships in business and banks and the federal reserve would help. These have to be the right colleges and banks. One has to move and live there. Then the jobs are boring and not well paid. The money is in the computer systems and trading systems. More math and engineering than politics and economics. So if a monetary economist says something it may not be worth listening.
There is no theory that says banks need inflation. Basic math and history shows the opposite is the case. Plunk some numbers into the gordon model and you will see that banks can go bankrupt under inflation very easily. RR=NR-IR basic identies such as that. I may write a little history on this on Veterans day.
Tangible-Asset Deflation: The big increase in commercial real estate in the 1980s was spurred by beneficial tax-law changes and by financial deregulation that allowed savings-and- loan banks to make commercial-real-estate loans. Deflation set in later that decade due to overbuilding and the changes in the 1986 tax law. Bad loans mounted and the S&L industry went bust. Today, commercial real estate is recovering, though inflation and deflation have occurred repeatedly in that sector since World War II
Of the seven varieties of deflation, five are already at work in the U.S. economy.
Commodity Deflation: In 2009 and 2010, the increases in commodity prices revived memories of the 1970s inflation spiral that resulted from the earlier mushrooming costs of the Vietnam War and the Great Society programs. Speculators and investors further inflated that bubble. Many pension and endowment funds, as well as individuals, became convinced that commodities were a legitimate investment class, like stocks and bonds, and they piled in and even doubled their bets as prices soared.
The Bankers' New Clothes: What's Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It: Anat Admati, Martin Hellwig: 9780691156842: Amazon.com: Books
What is wrong with today's banking system? The past few years have shown that risks in banking can impose significant costs on the economy. Many claim, however, that a safer banking system would require sacrificing lending and economic growth. The Bankers' New Clothes examines this claim and the narratives used by bankers, politicians, and regulators to rationalize the lack of reform, exposing them as invalid.
Admati and Hellwig argue we can have a safer and healthier banking system without sacrificing any of the benefits of the system, and at essentially no cost to society. They show that banks are as fragile as they are not because they must be, but because they want to be--and they get away with it. Whereas this situation benefits bankers, it distorts the economy and exposes the public to unnecessary risks. Weak regulation and ineffective enforcement allowed the buildup of risks that ushered in the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Much can be done to create a better system and prevent crises. Yet the lessons from the crisis have not been learned.
Admati and Hellwig seek to engage the broader public in the debate by cutting through the jargon of banking, clearing the fog of confusion, and presenting the issues in simple and accessible terms. The Bankers' New Clothes calls for ambitious reform and outlines specific and highly beneficial steps that can be taken immediately.
What is wrong with today’s banking system? The past few years have shown that risks in banking can impose significant costs on the economy. Many claim, however, that a safer banking system would require sacrificing lending and economic growth. The Bankers’ New Clothes examines this claim and the narratives used by bankers, politicians, and regulators to rationalize the lack of reform, exposing them as invalid.
The book argues that we can have a safer and healthier banking system without sacrificing any of the benefits of the system, and at essentially no cost to society. Banks are as fragile as they are not because they must be, but because they want to be–and they get away with it. Whereas this situation benefits bankers, it distorts the economy and exposes the public to unnecessary risks.
via Bankers New Clothes.
Bernanke says he is inflating to deflect criticism that he is doing nothing. Yellin says give them 2%. Not much compared to the 70s. Volcker 78 really hit the economy. Roosevelt even more.
I can put my republican banker hat and argue for more deflation and cut taxes on the rich.
I can put my democrat economist hat on and argue for more inflation and boost taxes 94% on the rich.
I can see it both ways and fastidiously cultivate alternative ways of looking at issues.
Both miss the big problems in economics and finance and are not solid theories. Just news stuff that I studied as a teenager and haven't read in decades. If I were interested in the topic I would read Gary Schilling and similar to get a balanced perspective. But there are more important topics nowadays, and better theoretical structures than when Schilling was educated decades ago.
Every day I wish I did not buy something in the past because it is cheaper and/or better now. Look at the chromebook $199 better than my $1000 macbook for most people. Computer deflation is very important because computers are getting into everything and doing lots of work that people used to waste a lot of time on. Soon people will be completely deflated worthless eaters while the world will be run by computers and robots.
Deflation can be a real boon to banks if they are allowed to force deflation to happen. That is what the song and dance in Washington DC is all about. Banks want deflation while liberals want inflation. I have watched inflation hysteria since the 1970s --- paying for Great Society Welfare, Vietnam war, Muslim oil, etc. when there really was inflation. Now Obama wants to give money to poor blacks for medical Obamacare which will drive up the spending and prices on medical care like food stamps drove up the price of food and Kuwait Iraq Afghan wars drove up the price of oil again,... While stingy Bernanke will only mildly stimulate the banks, just enough for banker bonuses and banks covering their new capital requirements imposed by Basle III. But the Obama deflation depression is so serious that even conservatives at the Fed moved are more inclined toward stimulus lately -- especially if they can benefit their broker buddies selling stocks and gold. If the economy does not improve then bankers know that Obama and the liberals can force more stimulus like Franklin D Roosevelt 94% tax rate on rich bankers to finance more welfare for the poor. However Obama has caved to the bankers and is not likely to get much on his social agenda and will have to cut war spending to even get that. The balance leans more toward deflation than inflation right now.
The rich and the Fed do not like to be told what to do. The Fed did not even tell congress what they were doing until the law forced them to do so. So the rich will allow a little inflation (2% Yellin the incoming Fed Chairwoman) and a lot of advertising to induce hyperinflation hysteria and to sell gold. Sheeple are always not always right! No matter how many bloggers agree with them.
There are some contrarians like me who sing a different tune than the lamestream media trying to convince you that we are in an inflationary boom so you should buy gold. Shilling is getting older but can still write ok. He is rich and not easily bought by used coin salesmen.
Top economist Gary Shilling shows you how to prosper in the slow-growing and deflationary times that lie ahead
While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, author Gary Shilling, an award-winning economic forecaster, argues that the global economy is going through a long period of de-leveraging and weak growth, which makes deflation far more likely and a far greater threat to investors than inflation. Shilling explains in clear language and compelling logic why the world economy will struggle for several more years and what investors can do to protect and grow their wealth in the difficult times ahead. The investment strategies that worked for last 25 years will not work in the next 10 years. Shilling advises readers to avoid broad exposure to stocks, real estate, and commodities and to focus on high-quality bonds, high-dividend stocks, and consumer staple and food stocks.
Written by one of today's best forecasters of economic trends-twice voted by Institutional Investor as Wall Street's top economist
Clearly explains what to invest in, what to avoid, and how to cope with a deflationary, slow-growth economy
Demonstrates how Shilling has been consistently right about major economic trends since he began forecasting in the early 1980s
Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this timely guide lays out a convincing case for why investors need to be prepared for a long period of weak growth and deflation-not inflation-and what you can do to prosper in the difficult times ahead.
A.Gary Shilling is President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor. He has been a columnist for Forbes magazine since 1983, frequently appears on business news programs, and is quoted regularly in the print media. Shilling has been warning about the long-term threat of deflation for several years and has even created a board game, aptly title The Deflation Game. He received his bachelor's degree from Amherst College and earned his master's degree and PhD in economics at Stanford University. Previously, Shilling was chief economist of White, Weld& Co, Inc. and set up the economics department at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, where he served as the firm's first chief economist.
A. Gary Shilling, a Bloomberg View columnist, is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a consultancy in Springfield, New Jersey. He is the author of “The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation.”
While on the West Coast, he served on the staffs of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and the Bank of America. Before establishing his own firm in 1978, Shilling was senior vice president and Chief Economist of White, Weld & Co. Earlier, he set up the Economics Department at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith at age 29, and served as the firm’s first chief economist.
He has been cited repeatedly by The Wall Street Journal as one of the top bond-market analysts and stock forecasters. Twice, a poll of financial institutions conducted by Institutional Investor magazine ranked Shilling as Wall Street’s top economist. Futures magazine also ranked him the country’s number one Commodity Trading Advisor. And in 2003, MoneySense ranked him as the third best stock market forecaster, behind Warren Buffett.
The Five Ways Deflation Has Already Taken Hold
Saturday, May 25, 2013
“Moderate daily consumption of caffeinated coffee appears to be the best dietary option for long-term protection against Alzheimer’s memory loss,” “Coffee is cheap, readily available, easily gets into the brain, and has few side-effects for most of us. caffeine and coffee directly attack the Alzheimer’s disease process.” In addition to Alzheimer’s disease, moderate caffeine/coffee intake appears to reduce Parkinson’s disease, stroke, Type II diabetes, and breast cancer. A study tracking the health and coffee consumption of more than 400,000 older adults for 13 years, and published earlier this year in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that coffee drinkers reduced their risk of dying from heart disease, lung disease, pneumonia, stroke, diabetes, infections, and even injuries and accidents.
coconut oil in the treatment of Alzheimer's Disease. Coconut oil has medium chain triglycerides, which are a good source of energy, in the form of ketone bodies. Ketones are byproducts of the breakdown of fats in the body; small amounts are normally produced. However, ketone levels rise when you fast (which can lead to a state called ketosis), in response to low glucose intake.
Most of the time our brains rely on glucose from carbohydrates, but if that isn’t available — because we haven’t eaten anything for a while or because we’re eating almost no carbohydrates — then our brain cells can switch to using the energy from our fat stores. This energy comes in the form of small molecules called ketones. ‘Coconut oil contains a lot of a particular sort of fat that our bodies can use to make more of the ketone “brain food”. 'It’s known as MCT (medium chain triglycerides)
He had been suffering from Alzheimer’s for eight years. The results after he started taking coconut oil were remarkable. ‘He began to get his short-term memory back,’ ‘His depression lifted, he became more like his old self. The problem he’d had with walking improved. An MRI scan showed his brain had stopped shrinking.’So what prompted her to use the oil in the first place? ‘Some years ago, I came across a small study suggesting that Alzheimer’s patients had a problem using glucose in the brain and that ketones could be an alternative source of fuel.
Friday, May 24, 2013
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
> Last nights '60 Minutes' had a 'Facebook' 'Face Recognition' story ! > Once your face is stored on Facebook, Corporations/Governments steal that > image and feed it into a Super-Computer, so they can recognize you > everywhere ! Cameras are multiplying fast, wherever you go! That is the > future ! Total strangers will address you by name ! > Every store you shop, every Restaurant you eat in ! Scary ! (Only > Celebrities had that problem) > Privacy gone ! > I remember [in the Army] before Basic Training during data collecting, a > soldier refused to give his fingerprints. He told me that it was illegal, > unconstitutional ! He had never been fingerprinted ! > I don't know what happened to him. > We have come a long way since then, losing many more of our Rights. > DNA bank next ? Chips are everywhere in our phones etc. (GPS) > Cashless [society] banking will seal our total enslavement ! > > Sent from my iPad > Peace,
> > Ron wrote: > > As I have been saying. Survivalblog.com has an entire article about how > one should not only avoid social networking but how to delist. Just scroll > down their main page and share with Joe. IRS mining eBay, Facebook, > emails to catch cheaters | Inman News > > Source: inman.com > > Is the IRS checking on your Facebook page? Quite possibly. The IRS has > discovered “big data.” In 2011, it created an Office of Compliance > Analytics that it has staffed with experts in data analytics and predictive > modeling. They have been busy working with private partners like IBM to > figure out ways to use the mass of data available in the on-line world to > catch tax scofflaws. Big data is all the rage these days, and it seems that > everyone’s using it. But the IRS has one big advantage over ever... > > > >
You don't have to give a photo of your face to Facebook. I uploaded photos of a bush and flowers. The government already has your photo from drivers licenses, military induction, arrests, etc. The government can already follow what you do by telephone (many decades), email (20 years), opening letters, following your car, every transaction you make, every store you visit (especially gun or gold stores), money laundering, etc. If you don't have a Facebook account the government may get suspicious that you have something to hide.
For you and most people Facebook is easier to use than email which is why Facebook is replacing email. Facebook grabs links and just the right amount of each news article to let you know if you want to read more. Then it opens in a window fast at the right size. Photos get resized right. Lengthy text gets hidden so just the right amount shows. Facebook has a large staff to get this right. Enabled by advertising revenues.
Google, Apple, Facebook etc. are private companies often at odds with the government. They want to make more fiat money so they give you the best possible product at the lowest possible price to get you to buy from them and use their services.
Customers don't have to use them. There is a lot of competition. If they get too cozy with the government they will slow down (waste time dealing with lazy bureaucrats) and not be competitive and go bankrupt. Or if they violate privacy too much people will leave and they will go bankrupt.
These free or cheap services can be useful if you use common sense. Don't brag about how you use gold to dodge taxes or money launder or put your nude photos online. Email is easier for the government to monitor than Facebook because email is much older and gets tossed onto the internet wires in ASCII predictable form instead of stuck in databases in the cloud in changing formats that are hard to understand. Phones are real easy to listen in to, by wiretaps.
Facebook is ad supported. I don't mind a few ads. Their ads are often better than old-style ads, targeted to me. Let them make a little money off ads for awhile. They very well may go bankrupt in a few years when the next big thing comes along. In the meantime I get a free product. Deflation cannot be stopped. Free is the new normal. Or real cheap.
Rich company owners want more fiat money so they give you a service that you need free if you watch some ads. Just like TV or radio. That model has worked for decades. I discovered my dumb phone has an FM radio. I get free news while walking.
In some countries (Europe) companies have to get your permission to take your picture. Big strong government can be useful to control what companies do. May be a useful law in the USA so you can shop, eat, or go to a movie without being bombarded with customized advertisements. But that has not happened yet because the technology is not here yet.
Last nights '60 Minutes' had a 'Facebook' 'Face Recognition' story !
Once your face is stored on Facebook, Corporations/Governments steal that image and feed it into a Super-Computer, so they can recognize you everywhere ! Cameras are multiplying fast, wherever you go! That is the future ! Total strangers will address you by name !
Every store you shop, every Restaurant you eat in ! Scary ! (Only Celebrities had that problem)
Privacy gone !
I remember [in the Army] before Basic Training during data collecting, a soldier refused to give his fingerprints. He told me that it was illegal, unconstitutional ! He had never been fingerprinted !
I don't know what happened to him.
We have come a long way since then, losing many more of our Rights.
DNA bank next ? Chips are everywhere in our phones etc. (GPS)
Cashless [society] banking will seal our total enslavement !
As I have been saying. Survivalblog.com has an entire article about how one should not only avoid social networking but how to delist. Just scroll down their main page and share with Joe. inman.com
Is the IRS checking on your Facebook page? Quite possibly. The IRS has discovered “big data.” In 2011, it created an Office of Compliance Analytics that it has staffed with experts in data analytics and predictive modeling. They have been busy working with private partners like IBM to figure out ways to use the mass of data available in the on-line world to catch tax scofflaws. Big data is all the rage these days, and it seems that everyone’s using it. But the IRS has one big advantage over ever...